The coronavirus variant seen so far is no more delusional than the strain first identified in India in February. Officials at the World Health Organization said on Monday that Delta is the “most appropriate” variant so far, as it spreads even more easily than other variants and can lead to more serious cases among uninserted people.
“Delta is a superspreader variant, the worst version of the virus we’ve seen,” said Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute. he tweeted last week.
It’s likely to be the worst thing the Delta coronavirus will throw at us – the virus, in other words, has reached what epidemiologists call “physical fitness”.
Topol and Italian virologist Roberto Burioni examine this scenario in a letter published in the journal Nature on Monday.
They write that the virus is likely to hit a point and then no longer mutate, making it more infectious. In that case, they say a “final” variant will prevail and become the main strain, as it only has minimal variations from time to time. “
It is too early to know what has happened, as Delta is not yet dominant in the world. It is likely to be soon – Delta has been detected in more than 80 countries so far and is already prevalent in India and the UK.
“Delta is absolutely climbing the peak of fitness – whether it’s at the top or not, I say that’s very difficult until we see more change,” said Andrew Read, who studies the evolution of infectious diseases at Pennsylvania State University. said Insider.
“If the delta takes over the world and nothing changes,” he added, “we’ll know in a while (a year or two) that it’s best.”
The most suitable variants are the best for spreading
The coronavirus is constantly mutating in a relatively harmful way, but from time to time, a mutation makes the virus a more threatening threat.
A new variant is emerging that can prevent antibodies from responding to a vaccine or an earlier infection, causing more serious illness, or spreading more easily.
Investigations are showing that Delta is checking at least two of these boxes.
Public Health England has found that the risk of transmitting coronavirus to Delta is 60% associated with the variant found in the UK. Alpha is already transmitting about 50 percent more than the original strain, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Scottish researchers have also found that contamination with Delta doubles the risk of being admitted to hospital more than Alpha. (Previous research has suggested that Alpha may die between 30 and 70 percent of its original strain.)
Moreover, emerging research indicates that a single dose of vaccine does not perform as well as Delta against other coronavirus strains. Recent analyzes in Public Health England have found that two doses of Pfizer’s vaccine are 88 per cent effective in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 from Delta, while a single shot is only 33 per cent effective.
It compares to 95 percent efficiency against the original voltage, with 52 percent after a shot.
The best way to keep the coronavirus that Topol and Burion wrote in the letter is to be more contagious. If a variant is spreading rapidly, there is no urgent need to prevent the body’s immune response; he can jump on another person.
“What we’re looking for is a person-to-person transmission rate increase,” Read said.
So far, Delta is the most polluting variant. Delta cases in the U.S. appear to have tripled in just 11 days, from 10 percent of all cases sequenced in early June to 31 percent last week, according to the latest estimates Financial Times.
Accordingly, experts predict that the Delta week will become the nation’s main tension.
This does not necessarily mean that coronavirus has achieved maximum transmission.
Read said Delta could get combinations of mutations that are still better spread (what he called the “Delta-plus” variant).
It is likely that two separate variants (Delta and Alpha, for example) combine mutations to create an even more infectious strain. Under the third scenario, Read said, a completely new lineage could replace the Delta as the main variant.
“The biggest concern at the moment is just the number of people with the virus and therefore the number of variants that are emerging,” Read said.
“Some of them may be more suitable jackpots than Delta.”
However, vaccines are likely to provide protection against any strain that indicates the highest physical condition of the coronavirus.
“There has never been a weakening variant of the human vaccine to the point where the vaccine was completely useless,” Read said.
This article was originally published by Business Insider.
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